Spotter activation will be needed for Saturday morning starting at 9AM. This is a full area wide activation. This will mean NWS on the air and a full net active.
Current modeling projects an enhanced risk for severe weather with this system as ingredients are lining up for a strong wind threat and the potential for an isolated tornado or two.
Forecast origination date: Jan 7, 2020
The defining feature that will drive our threat going into Saturday will be the low level jet. This will promote storm development in conjunction with the warm sector of this system drawing in a deep moisture layer.
Our tornado threat isn’t as high but still possible with elevated helicity ahead of the front.
Projected soundings are conducive for development with veering winds to 750mb.
Our inhibiting factors will be conservative convective potential and moderate lapse rates that will limit explosive convection. However, vertical wind profiles will allow for dynamic lifting that can drive development.
Timing of this event will most likely change as we draw closer.